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Week In Review 10-16 Aug + the mathematics of a run of outs

Wednesday, 19 August 2020

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Week In Review 10-16 Aug

NRL Tips

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/nrl-tips/

Week: +17.3 units profit (63% POT)

Overall: +224.8 units profit (12% POT)

A big weekend having 3 winners from 4 bets. They were Storm +8, Cowboys +8 & Bulldogs +6.5!

NRL Tips have made 29 units profit so far this season at 11.6% POT

 

Greyhound Genius

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/greyhound-genius/

Week: +14.9 units profit (88% POT)

Overall: +1135.4 units profit (13% POT)

Great start to the week on Tuesday with our one bet Sonic Nismo winning at $2.60. Another good result on Thursday with place bet Crazy Old Goat running 2nd at $3.30! The perfect start to the week continued on Friday with Still Blue getting the job done for us at $9! Small loss Saturday night to close out another great week.

Greyhound Genius has delivered +574 units ($57,400 per $100 unit) PROFIT since 1 June 2018 at 19% POT!!!

A remarkable +128 units ($12,800 per $100 unit) PROFIT in just over the past 3 months!

 

NSW Tips & Ratings

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/nsw-tips-and-ratings/

Week: +2.9 units profit (21% POT)

Overall: +70.7 units profit (4% POT)

It was a good start to the week at Warwick Farm on Wednesday with Savigne $8.50 & Bothered $4.60 both scoring. Good result on Thursday with Rifles landing the cash at $3.40! No joy at Randwick on Saturday with Vitesse running 2nd at $3.20 (3.5u worth).

 

Blackbook Bets

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/blackbook-bets/

Week: +2.0 units profit (44% POT)

Overall: +294.5 units profit (6% POT)

Pearl Bandit winning at $13 on Saturday a big result to make it a winning week! Nearlyma huge week with Watch Me Ney Ney $20 running 2nd on Wednesday (10u worth).

Blackbook Bets has delivered +69 units PROFIT at 11% POT since 1 May 2019.

 

Dean’s Tips

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/deans-tips/

Week: +1.6 units profit (6% POT)

Overall: +657.3 units profit (6% POT)

A profitable week thanks to Saturday where we had wins by Our Playboy, Bless Her & Behemoth. Was nearly a big day with Travimyfriend (50/1 in the morning) running 2nd nailed on the line, and Angel Of Truth also a strong 2nd charging home but not quite getting the winner in time.

 

Feature Futures

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/feature-futures/

Week: +0.9 units profit (41% POT)

Overall: +259.8 units profit (44% POT)

A profit from our one betting race this week (PB Lawrence Stakes) with each way bet Kings Will Dream placing at $13/$3.4.

 

Trial Spy

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/trial-spy/

Week: -2.1 units profit (-38% POT)

Overall: +638.1 units profit (8% POT)

A relatively quiet week with just the 6 bets for 1 winner Minifinn, and 3 2nds with Mishani Miss, Five Bob and Woodley's Gold going down by a nose.

 

Saturday Specials

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/saturday-specials/

Week: -2.2 units profit (-24% POT)

Overall: +82.5 units profit (25% POT)

Clairvoyance & Montelena both got the job done for us on Saturday whilst Territory Titan running 2nd at $2.60 cost us a winning day (5.2u worth).

Saturday Specials has delivered +82 units ($8,200 per $100 unit) PROFIT in under 6 months.

 

Speed Stars

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/speed-stars/

Week: -2.2 units profit (-28% POT)

Overall: +25.2 units profit (36% POT)

We got off to a great start with a race fit Varda holding out the fast finishing Masked Crusader as anticipated. Oliver gave an ordinary ride on Sovereign Award (2nd) when the entire planet expected him to roll forward, control the speed and turn on the pressure from the 600m but he opted to hold the horse back causing her to over race and use up a lot of energy. Plein Ciel (2nd) and Rulership (3rd) were very well supported but fell just short.

Our newest service Speed Stars has delivered +25 units ($2,500 per $100 unit) PROFIT at 36% POT in just its first 6 weeks.

 

Strikers

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/strikers/

Week: -3.1 units profit (-7% POT)

Overall: +107.7 units profit (9% POT)

Losses across Wednesday, Thursday & Friday before hitting the mark across the weekend. Saturday winners were Queen Of Manhattan $4, Andale Gringo $2.50, Kisukano & Dotti Dear with 4 winners and 3 2nds from 8 bets. Huge result on Sunday with our one bet My Lesson landing the cash at $7.50!!

45.8u worth of 2nds for the week.

Strikers has delivered +107 units ($10,700 per $100 unit) PROFIT in under 5 months, and has yet to have a losing month.

 

WA Tips & Ratings

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/wa-tips-and-ratings-cameron-obrien/

Week: -9.1 units profit (-59% POT)

Overall: +93.2 units profit (9% POT)

One winner this week which came on Sunday at Kalgoorlie with Magniforce saluting at $8. We didn’t have the best of luck on Saturday with Pym’s Royale $6.40 & Burning Pride $3.90 both running 2nd (8.1u worth).

WA Tips & Ratings has delivered +33 units profit at 8% POT since 1 November.

 

Total Team Profit: 20.9 units profit (12% POT)

 

 

 

The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks

The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:

 

image

 

n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets) ln = natural logarithm1 P = probability2 | .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

Simply put, let's say you are betting on Heads in a coin toss (with a 50% expected value). You are still going to have runs of losing streaks and winning streaks.

Over 500 coin tosses, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 9 losers in a row during that period.

If your Strike Rate is 40%, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 12 losers in a row during that period.

It's very important to understand and appreciate this, and realise that even on a losing day, the next winner and winning streak is also statistically set to occur.

On the positive side, over 500 coin tosses, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 9 winners in a row during that period, and if your Strike Rate is 40%, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 7 winners in a row during that period.

In fact, on say a 40% win strike rate, the expected time of occurrence of 5 losers in a row is after just 13 bets, and 10 losers in a row after just 165 bets.

Once you aware of this, you realise the power of betting with a bank, and simply following the staking and not getting too emotional over any winning or losing period.

Stick with your services and the strategies, and you will be rewarded.

The world's most successful investor, Warren Buffet (who incidentally started his career in horse racing) once famously stated 'the Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". The statement is equally adept for punters also.

 

 

 

 

 

DETAILED RESULTS SPREADSHEETS FOR ALL SERVICES

 

 

 

WINNING EDGE PODCAST

Hear from leading trainers, jockeys and key racing industry identities on a range of betting related topics in the Winning Edge podcast.

 

LISTEN: WINNING EDGE PODCASTS

 

 

 

image

image

 

 

 

WINNING EDGE TV

Watch the Winning Edge YouTube channel to stay up-to-date with informative videos, webinars and interviews.

 

 

WINNING EDGE YOUTUBE CHANNEL

 

 

 

Invest intelligently with Winning Edge

Official results are tallied using our fair odds recording policy: either the third-highest fixed price available, or the tote option advised. With over 20 bookmaker options available to punters in Australia, plus three totes, plus Betfair, most members exceed official results.

Every member receives a 120 page Members Information Pack full of information on how to maximise their profits, covering topics including how to get the best possible odds, how to avoid getting banned by the bookies, improving mindset, sound bankroll management, understanding variance, FAQs and much more.

Our analysts are highly experienced, professional punters in their own right: if they're recommending a bet to you, it's because they're backing it themselves.

Our clients include full time and semi professional punters, stewards, trainers, jockeys, owners and media, all the way through to novices who want to simply 'bet and forget' profitably with Australia's most respected, reputable & profitable tipping organisation

All services have a long term track record of sustainable profit, with full transparency, honesty and accountability. Winning Edge is the only tipping organisation with results posted to the website and social media daily, win or lose.

Our team is made up of real people with social media profiles who are always contactable & passionate about providing more than just tips, but also education and advice to punters on how to become highly profitable long term.

We have a long list of testimonials from happy, successful long term clients who have been with us since inception. Unlike virtually all other tipping organisations, we don't and have never received affiliate commission payments from bookmakers based on your losses.

Sick of losing? Start treating your betting like a business with Winning Edge Investments.

 

Facebook Twitter YouTube

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BLOGS

Week In Review 10-16 Aug + the mathematics of a run of outs

Wednesday, 19 August 2020

Share post on

image

 

Facebook Twitter YouTube

 

 

 

image

 

Week In Review 10-16 Aug

NRL Tips

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/nrl-tips/

Week: +17.3 units profit (63% POT)

Overall: +224.8 units profit (12% POT)

A big weekend having 3 winners from 4 bets. They were Storm +8, Cowboys +8 & Bulldogs +6.5!

NRL Tips have made 29 units profit so far this season at 11.6% POT

 

Greyhound Genius

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/greyhound-genius/

Week: +14.9 units profit (88% POT)

Overall: +1135.4 units profit (13% POT)

Great start to the week on Tuesday with our one bet Sonic Nismo winning at $2.60. Another good result on Thursday with place bet Crazy Old Goat running 2nd at $3.30! The perfect start to the week continued on Friday with Still Blue getting the job done for us at $9! Small loss Saturday night to close out another great week.

Greyhound Genius has delivered +574 units ($57,400 per $100 unit) PROFIT since 1 June 2018 at 19% POT!!!

A remarkable +128 units ($12,800 per $100 unit) PROFIT in just over the past 3 months!

 

NSW Tips & Ratings

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/nsw-tips-and-ratings/

Week: +2.9 units profit (21% POT)

Overall: +70.7 units profit (4% POT)

It was a good start to the week at Warwick Farm on Wednesday with Savigne $8.50 & Bothered $4.60 both scoring. Good result on Thursday with Rifles landing the cash at $3.40! No joy at Randwick on Saturday with Vitesse running 2nd at $3.20 (3.5u worth).

 

Blackbook Bets

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/blackbook-bets/

Week: +2.0 units profit (44% POT)

Overall: +294.5 units profit (6% POT)

Pearl Bandit winning at $13 on Saturday a big result to make it a winning week! Nearlyma huge week with Watch Me Ney Ney $20 running 2nd on Wednesday (10u worth).

Blackbook Bets has delivered +69 units PROFIT at 11% POT since 1 May 2019.

 

Dean’s Tips

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/deans-tips/

Week: +1.6 units profit (6% POT)

Overall: +657.3 units profit (6% POT)

A profitable week thanks to Saturday where we had wins by Our Playboy, Bless Her & Behemoth. Was nearly a big day with Travimyfriend (50/1 in the morning) running 2nd nailed on the line, and Angel Of Truth also a strong 2nd charging home but not quite getting the winner in time.

 

Feature Futures

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/feature-futures/

Week: +0.9 units profit (41% POT)

Overall: +259.8 units profit (44% POT)

A profit from our one betting race this week (PB Lawrence Stakes) with each way bet Kings Will Dream placing at $13/$3.4.

 

Trial Spy

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/trial-spy/

Week: -2.1 units profit (-38% POT)

Overall: +638.1 units profit (8% POT)

A relatively quiet week with just the 6 bets for 1 winner Minifinn, and 3 2nds with Mishani Miss, Five Bob and Woodley's Gold going down by a nose.

 

Saturday Specials

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/saturday-specials/

Week: -2.2 units profit (-24% POT)

Overall: +82.5 units profit (25% POT)

Clairvoyance & Montelena both got the job done for us on Saturday whilst Territory Titan running 2nd at $2.60 cost us a winning day (5.2u worth).

Saturday Specials has delivered +82 units ($8,200 per $100 unit) PROFIT in under 6 months.

 

Speed Stars

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/speed-stars/

Week: -2.2 units profit (-28% POT)

Overall: +25.2 units profit (36% POT)

We got off to a great start with a race fit Varda holding out the fast finishing Masked Crusader as anticipated. Oliver gave an ordinary ride on Sovereign Award (2nd) when the entire planet expected him to roll forward, control the speed and turn on the pressure from the 600m but he opted to hold the horse back causing her to over race and use up a lot of energy. Plein Ciel (2nd) and Rulership (3rd) were very well supported but fell just short.

Our newest service Speed Stars has delivered +25 units ($2,500 per $100 unit) PROFIT at 36% POT in just its first 6 weeks.

 

Strikers

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/strikers/

Week: -3.1 units profit (-7% POT)

Overall: +107.7 units profit (9% POT)

Losses across Wednesday, Thursday & Friday before hitting the mark across the weekend. Saturday winners were Queen Of Manhattan $4, Andale Gringo $2.50, Kisukano & Dotti Dear with 4 winners and 3 2nds from 8 bets. Huge result on Sunday with our one bet My Lesson landing the cash at $7.50!!

45.8u worth of 2nds for the week.

Strikers has delivered +107 units ($10,700 per $100 unit) PROFIT in under 5 months, and has yet to have a losing month.

 

WA Tips & Ratings

https://www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/wa-tips-and-ratings-cameron-obrien/

Week: -9.1 units profit (-59% POT)

Overall: +93.2 units profit (9% POT)

One winner this week which came on Sunday at Kalgoorlie with Magniforce saluting at $8. We didn’t have the best of luck on Saturday with Pym’s Royale $6.40 & Burning Pride $3.90 both running 2nd (8.1u worth).

WA Tips & Ratings has delivered +33 units profit at 8% POT since 1 November.

 

Total Team Profit: 20.9 units profit (12% POT)

 

 

 

The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks

The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:

 

image

 

n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets) ln = natural logarithm1 P = probability2 | .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

Simply put, let's say you are betting on Heads in a coin toss (with a 50% expected value). You are still going to have runs of losing streaks and winning streaks.

Over 500 coin tosses, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 9 losers in a row during that period.

If your Strike Rate is 40%, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 12 losers in a row during that period.

It's very important to understand and appreciate this, and realise that even on a losing day, the next winner and winning streak is also statistically set to occur.

On the positive side, over 500 coin tosses, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 9 winners in a row during that period, and if your Strike Rate is 40%, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 7 winners in a row during that period.

In fact, on say a 40% win strike rate, the expected time of occurrence of 5 losers in a row is after just 13 bets, and 10 losers in a row after just 165 bets.

Once you aware of this, you realise the power of betting with a bank, and simply following the staking and not getting too emotional over any winning or losing period.

Stick with your services and the strategies, and you will be rewarded.

The world's most successful investor, Warren Buffet (who incidentally started his career in horse racing) once famously stated 'the Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". The statement is equally adept for punters also.

 

 

 

 

 

DETAILED RESULTS SPREADSHEETS FOR ALL SERVICES

 

 

 

WINNING EDGE PODCAST

Hear from leading trainers, jockeys and key racing industry identities on a range of betting related topics in the Winning Edge podcast.

 

LISTEN: WINNING EDGE PODCASTS

 

 

 

image

image

 

 

 

WINNING EDGE TV

Watch the Winning Edge YouTube channel to stay up-to-date with informative videos, webinars and interviews.

 

 

WINNING EDGE YOUTUBE CHANNEL

 

 

 

Invest intelligently with Winning Edge

Official results are tallied using our fair odds recording policy: either the third-highest fixed price available, or the tote option advised. With over 20 bookmaker options available to punters in Australia, plus three totes, plus Betfair, most members exceed official results.

Every member receives a 120 page Members Information Pack full of information on how to maximise their profits, covering topics including how to get the best possible odds, how to avoid getting banned by the bookies, improving mindset, sound bankroll management, understanding variance, FAQs and much more.

Our analysts are highly experienced, professional punters in their own right: if they're recommending a bet to you, it's because they're backing it themselves.

Our clients include full time and semi professional punters, stewards, trainers, jockeys, owners and media, all the way through to novices who want to simply 'bet and forget' profitably with Australia's most respected, reputable & profitable tipping organisation

All services have a long term track record of sustainable profit, with full transparency, honesty and accountability. Winning Edge is the only tipping organisation with results posted to the website and social media daily, win or lose.

Our team is made up of real people with social media profiles who are always contactable & passionate about providing more than just tips, but also education and advice to punters on how to become highly profitable long term.

We have a long list of testimonials from happy, successful long term clients who have been with us since inception. Unlike virtually all other tipping organisations, we don't and have never received affiliate commission payments from bookmakers based on your losses.

Sick of losing? Start treating your betting like a business with Winning Edge Investments.

 

Facebook Twitter YouTube

Related Posts

Saturday, April 13, 2024

Saturday Newsletter 13 Apr 2024

It's a massive day at Randwick with four Group 1 races . The $5,000,000 Queen Elizabeth Stakes has Australian Cup winner Cascadian taking on rivals Via Sistina, Place Du Carrousel, Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside in what will be an amazing watch. Th

Saturday, April 6, 2024

Saturday Newsletter 6 April 2024

It is a massive day at Randwick with four Group 1 races. The $4,000,000 Doncaster Mile has Another Wil as early favourite as he aims for 5 wins in a row, in a race with many chances. Last year's winner I Wish I WIn returns to defend his title in the 

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Saturday Newsletter 16 March 2024

Today we have the $3,750,000 All Star Mile at Caulfield, featuring some of the best horses in Australia competing for the massive prize money where 2023 winner Mr. Brightside is currently the market favourite. The field includes Pride Of Jenni who wa

Monday, March 11, 2024

Saturday Newsletter 9 March 2024

↵Today, Flemington has a talented field of sprinters for the Group 1 $1,500,000 Newmarket Handicap where Imperatriz is expected to extend her picket fence of wins. The Group 2 $300,000 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes over 1400m sees Rue De Royale the curre

Monday, March 4, 2024

AFL TIPS 2024 Q&A

Introducing Will – Our AFL Guru Click here to join Expert AFL Betting Tips - AFL Betting Strategies and Advice //www.winningedgeinvestments.com/products/afl-tips How long have you been betting profitably on AFL?I have been betting profitably on the A