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WA Tips & Ratings
Thursday, 20 February 2020
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Below is a special note sent to members of WA Tips & Ratings
I would like to point out that on the metro days when you have my full prices, opportunities exist late in the betting to find overlays at good prices. As many people have spoken about, including myself, the early markets currently are stacked full of percentage these days, thanks to the government imposing any new tax they can possibly think of to cash grab from the racing industry.
What this has meant is that more of the betting needs to be done later, when the markets have balanced up a bit, when betfair has liquidity, and when the totes have liquidity. It brings into play markets like Betfair SP (and betfair trading close to race start time of course) as well as products like BOB if you bet in time for that, or best tote/SP with most corporates if you are betting closer to the race time.
Unfortunately, it is difficult for me (and for anyone) to forecast what the final markets are going to be on race morning, and therefore include value runner tips. I will endeavour to include a few more of these value runners when I feel sure they will qualify, but others will drift out and qualify close to race time.
Looking at yesterday, here are three winners listed with my price, then the Early Market price, then Best of the Best (BOB) then Best tote or SP (B4) then the Betfair SP adjusted for the 9% commission:
| RACE | HORSE | MY PRICE | EM PRICE | BOB | B4 | BFSP (adj 9%) |
| 4 | TOLLMAN | 6.1 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.14 |
| 5 | DE ANDES | 13.7 | 21 | 26 | 26 | 32.7 |
| 6 | COSMIC EYES | 14.6 | 21 | 50.6 | 50.6 | 59.37 |
None of those horses qualified as bets in the morning, due to restrictive market %'s, however all three can be backed as overlays closer to race time.
A handy rule of thumb you can work off with my prices is that if they are rated in single figure odds by me, require at least a 1.15 to 1.35 x overlay to bet (the longer in single figure odds I rate them, the more the overlay you need), and if they are double figure odds, at least a 1.5 to 1.75 x overlay to bet (again, the longer the odds I rate them, the bigger the overlay you need).
Under those rules, all three qualify of those winners qualify as value bets.
Again, I shy away from including these types in the email, because I don't know which horses will drift and which will tighten, and of course because in the example above with the restrictive market %'s they didn't qualify early on anyway. However, if you are able to check the markets closer to race time there are great value bets you can secure.
