BLOGS

Speed Stars Week in Review

Wednesday 14th & Saturday 17th October

-5.2u at -37% POT

2 winners from 7 selections

28.5% Strike Rate

Winners: It’s Me $2.15, The Difference $2.25

Comments: It’s time to restart the “Close Beats” count after missing around 60u profit by 1L or less in August and September, this week we have had losing margins of 0.5L, 0.5L, 0.2L and 0.5L equating to 36.9u beaten by 0.5L or less.

Selection Review

Chaillot $7.50 (3rd 0.5L from a 15u return) – she jumped away ok but drifted back in the field and was being hard ridden a long way out, she eventually responded well and knuckled down to finish strongly beaten 0.5L. She was crowded in the straight when she was starting to wind up which halted her momentum and cost her the win. Her last 200m was 4L faster than that of the 1st and 2nd placed horses and she ran the 2nd best last 400m and best last 200m ratings of the entire meeting.

Elizabeel $5.00 (3rd 0.5L from a 10u return) – after jumping away well and the speed being quite average, Collett should have allowed her to roll forward and sit outside Newsreader and be one off the fence which would have put her within a couple of lengths of the leader – after all she is a horse that races on speed so it’s a no-brainer. Instead he let her drift back through the field into an impossible position with a chequered run in the straight, she didn’t get clear air until the 150m and was 2.5L off the leader where she made up 2L to be beaten 0.5L. In my opinion, this was a clear error in riding tactics that cost her the race.

It’s Me $2.15 (1ST 4.3u return) – I was very bullish about her in the preview and she didn’t let me down, at the 400m she was still 5L off the leader and in traffic and looked beaten. She finally saw clear air around the 200m with over 3L to make up and she was good enough to get the job done confirming my belief that she was simply far superior to her opposition.

Alleboom $4.20 (UNP) – there was a lot of late money for this horse where he was backed from $4.20 into $3.40 on official flucs, he had a tough 3 wide run on speed and didn’t finish off at all. Perhaps he was flattered last start but we’ll see what the stewards report has to say.

The Difference $2.25 (1ST 4.5u return) – I don’t know if there was a change of tactics but I was floored when I saw him go forward and lead when I expected him to be at the tail. He did some work early and I thought his race was run but he ran away from them and was simply too good as his form factors and speed ratings had indicated.

Fituese $2.35 (2nd 0.2L off a 4.7u return) – she jumped well and landed exactly as I expected but she never looked comfortable with the pace, she ran a faster L600/400/200 than the winner but couldn’t quite make up the ground. From that run, it seems that she is looking for longer than 1100m.

Felicia $3.61 (3rd 0.5L off a 7.2u return) – I gave Craig Williams a wrap in the preview saying he knew this horse inside out, it turns out that is not true or else he would have set a faster early speed. In her previous 2 lead up runs (over 1200m), her early speed to the 800m was between 3-6L faster than her rivals and this was an excellent platform to get out running and put the other horses out of their comfort zone. Instead he led at a ridiculously slow pace and in doing so took away his best chance of winning, she doesn't have the best late sprint in the race and this was evident in the finish. Whether it was trainer tactics or he made the call himself makes no difference, it was a poor tactical ride and if he had set a faster pace or made a move between the 800-400 to get the field chasing, I am very confident he would have won the race.

Summary

Although we only picked up 2 winners from our 7 selections, we had 4 horses beaten for 2nd or 3rd with a combined 1.7L beaten margin and 3 of those horses considered very unlucky not to have won. We were on the right horses and could have very easily picked up 5 from 7 and a 27u profit, it was a very solid week despite ending with a loss.

October Results To Date

+44.2u at 152% POT

9 winners from 15 selections

60% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 18/07/2020)

+67.8u at 39.6% POT

9/15 Winning Weeks

2/3 Winning Months

Long Term Model Results

67/96 Winning Days – 69.79%

16/21 Winning Months – 76.19%

45.3% Strike rate

+454.1u at 50.6% POT

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo

Cheers,

Mat.