Magic Millions 2020 Preview

Magic Millions 2yo Preview

The Magic Millions 2yo will always be a special race for Trial Spy members. In 2018 Dean advised members to confidently back Sunlight in Futures markets at $34, a month before she romped home by 3L as the strong favourite. Now a 4yo mare, she has gone on to win 3 G1 sprint races and over $5m in prizemoney.

The 2020 edition could be the next to enter the folklore, as Dean advised members to back the fancied Wisdom of Water at $101 in Futures Markets, as well as Stellar Pauline and Conceited at double figure odds, giving members 3 strong chances already for a big collect in the $2m race.

Read Dean’s preview below of the $2m Magic Millions 2yo run on Saturday Jan 11 at the Gold Coast over 1200m.

Key Facts

  • 23 of the last 27 winners were last start winners
  • 5 of the last 7 winners backed up in the past 7 days
  • Good barriers do help. In the last 20 years, 15 have won from gates 1 to 8, and 5 have won from gates 9 to 16
  • In the past 8 years, 7 of the winners have SP under $5. However given the even nature of this race, it is possible that even the favourite won’t be under $5 this year
  • Gai Waterhouse has won 4 of the last 20, but the spoils have been split evenly amongst many other trainers
  • NSW & QLD based trainers have dominated the race, with VIC trainers generally struggling to get a look in
  • In the last 20 years, 12 fillies, 5 geldings and 3 colts have won

Key Chances

Wisdom of Water (Currently $17)

Trial Spy members were advised to back this horse at $101 in fixed odds futures markets

Won Gold Coast 1000m Oct 28 trial by 14L +0.1 above par. Failed as odds on fave first up. Ridden with a sit in Doomben 840m Dec 17 trial when 2nd beaten a nose in solid time. Won well for Trial Spy members at $12 last Saturday, and has plenty in his favour for this race.

Backs up in 7 days which is a big positive, the QLD based trainer T Edmonds won this race with Houtzen in 2017, is a last start winner and should start from barrier 6. Certainly fits much of the profile of a Magic Millions Winner

Conceited (Currently $9)

Trial Spy members were advised to back this horse at $15-$17 in fixed odds futures markets

Won well at Flemington on debut down the straight when backed. Finished home strongly for 2nd to Wisdom of Water carrying 58.5kg last week. Trainer J Cummings won this race last year, jockey D Lane won nearly all the major races last year, and is backing up in 7 days which is a big plus. Has a wide gate but that likely suits his swooping style

Stellar Pauline (Currently $21)

Trial Spy members were advised to back this horse at $12 in fixed odds futures markets

Settled 3rd, came out and finished solidly for 2nd beaten a nose in Kensington 852m Sep 23 trial in -3.6 LS -4.9; 2nd quickest time of 11 2yo trials. Was an unlucky 2nd on debut in the G3 Gimcrack Stakes behind current Magic Millions favourite Every Rose. Solid close 2nd in Kembla Grange 800m Dec 11 trial before a strong finishing 2nd first up behind Aim. Should start from barrier 11 which suits her swooping style. Looks set for this and very underrated by the market.

Key Dangers

Gotta Kiss (Currently $13)

Impressed winning first two trials in preparation. Won Doomben 840m Sep 10 trial by 3.5L in +4.5 LS +1.3 after settling off the pace. Won Eagle Farm 800m Sep 23 trial by 0.7L in -2.5 LS +1.1, quickest of 5 2yo trials on the day. Won comfortably for Trial Spy members on debut, then a narrow 2nd to the handy Rothfire before winning again for Trial Spy members last start at Eagle Farm. Looks a very strong chance here

Every Rose (Currently $11)

Mark Newnham trained filly. Settled 3rd and finished home nicely to win Kensington 852m Sep 23 trial by 1.7L in -3.4 LS -2.6. Led all the way to win the G3 Gimcrack Stakes on debut for Trial Spy members by 1.5L. Won Randwick 735m Nov 26 trial by 5L. Solid 2nd first up at Wyong to Farnan, then 2nd at Eagle Farm to King’s Legacy. Should start from barrier 8 and should be figuring.

Nitrous (Currently $27)

Led all the way and did it fairly easily winning Kensington 23 Sep 847m trial by 0.9L -4.9 LS -2.1. Failed on debut in the Breeders Stakes, and has come back and won at Canberra and Randwick. Appears to keep improving after it’s good first trial, and is the knockout.

Other Chances

Aim (Currently $6.50), Farnan (Currently $6.50) and King’s Legacy (Currently $7.50) are the other winning chances to my eye on their race form, but these are the three current favourites and don’t represent value in my opinion in what is an open and even race. All have improved markedly in their races from their trials and can win, but the best trial performances win these major 2yo races more often than not, and the best triallers are covered in the Key Chances and Key Dangers sections above.