BLOGS

Barriers

From 62 Golden Slippers and the most prolific winning barrier is Barrier 1 with 9 wins.

Barriers 1 to 4 have won 23

5-8 have won 16

9-12 have won 15

13-16 have won 8

Position in running

There is an incredible piece of info when you actually watch the replays of the past 15 Golden Slippers (wet tracks in bold)

2004, Dance Hero from gate two led all the way on the rail

2005, Stratum from gate six led all the way on the rail

2006, Miss Finland from gate seven was at the back, well back and hugged the rail

2007, Forensics went from gate one, won that course on the rail

2008, Sebring from gate five settled well back and hugged the rail

2009, Phelan Ready from gate fifteen, dropped right back to last but hugged the rail

2010, Crystal Lily from gate one was good on the rail

2011, Sepoy from gate eight was 3rd on the rail

2012, Pierro from gate one hugged the rail

2013, Overreach from gate one was third on the rail

2014, Mossfun missed the start from gate 11 and hugged the rail the whole way to win

2015, Vancouver sat 3 wide with cover and won

2016, Capitalist sat 3 back on the rails and came out in the straight to win

2017, She Will Reign makes a beeline for the rails after a slow getaway and wins

2018, Estijaab led all the way on the rails

Did you pick it up? 14 of the past 15 Golden Slipper winners were on the rails before the turn. Quite an unbelievable piece of info for jockeys, jockey managers, trainers & owners to be aware of when forming their race day plans. For punters the challenge is finding those horses given a lot comes down to luck in running and the intent, intelligence and/or instructions of the jockeys on board.

But you can see a remarkably clear pattern there of recent Slipper winners over the last 15 years, that you want to be on the fence.

Last 7 years

1) All 7 winners had last start 14 days before the Slipper

2) All 7 winners had never run worse than 2nd in their life

3) All 7 winners had either 3 or 4 starts prior to the Golden Slipper

4) 5 of the last 7 were Trial Spy identified/backed horses (before their first starts)

Qualifiers of the above historical trends

1. 1,3,6,9,11,14,15,17
2. 1,2,5,9,10
3. 1,2,4,5,6,7,9
4. 1,5,11,13

#1 Yes Yes Yes meets all 4 criteria

#5 Cosmic Force & #9 Tenley meet ¾ of the criteria

Speed Map

Plenty of speed engaged in this Slipper as usual with Free Of Debt, Kiamchi, Vincere Volare

Is usually tough to lead all the way in the Slipper (Estijaab a rare, talented exception) so they may struggle

Microphone looks to get an ideal run just behind the speed on the rail.

Horses like Yes Yes Yes, Lyre, Exhilarates, Loving Gaby and Tenley look to get a long way back

Runner by Runner comments

1. Yes Yes Yes

Was an outstanding trial when 2nd to Dubious after sitting back and charging home under no pressure for 2nd in Canterbury 895m Feb 25 trial in quick time +7.9 LS +2. Was an excellent win first up two weeks ago when we backed him in the Todman. Shame about the carpark draw but is flying and is potentially the best 2yo in the race. If he had drawn a gate I’d be declaring him.

2. Microphone

Does map to get an ideal Slipper run on the rails behind the speed. Having 5th start in first prep. The ratings/speed disciples have salivated over this horse but from a class perspective the form from his first 3 runs hasn’t held up. Last win was good in the Skyline but didn’t beat the A graders. Doesn’t rate in the top 5 juveniles in the race on true ability, but the map is ideal whilst many are disadvantaged so can’t discount entirely.

3. Time To Reign

Horse and trainer both love wet tracks and can’t completely discount on that basis. Silver Slipper win was strong over Tassort and Born A Warrior. Has mixed form and maps with a risk to be caught wide on a limb. Can figure, but risking to win

4. Free Of Debt

Surprised managing to hold on for 3rd in the Blue Diamond after winning first two starts in weaker grade. This is another step up again and risking him

5. Cosmic Force

A horse we have followed closely and backed every start including his debut win. Looks to be hitting form at the right time winning the Pago Pago for us last week by over 7L and the Snowden’s have a knack for peaking them on this day. Strong chance

6. Dubious

Handy colt who won the Breeders Stakes and ran 2nd in the Magic Millions. Solid 3rd first up in the Todman and blinkers go on here. Map a challenge with a risk of being caught wide on a limb. Risking

7. Lyre

Blue Diamond winner coming off 3 wins in a row. Good in Randwick 1050m Mar 14 trial winning by 2L in good time. 5th up in first prep and no horse has won the Slipper from a Blue Diamond run last start in a very long time. Risking

8. Lankan Star

Ran 2nd in the Blue Diamond then flopped in Sydney run. Not keen.

9. Tenley

Has impressed in all 3 career wins from 3 starts, particularly the last start win in the Reisling. Does settle a fair way off the pace however. Risk is how far she gets back. If the rider is smart (and he’s the best in Australia in my opinion) he’ll hug the rails and chime into it. Will be a tough ask trying to go around them

10. Pin Sec

Comes from a different form line to the rest. Won the Black Opal comfortably, but had all the favours there and hasn’t beaten much of note to date. Can run a big race but risking her to win

11. Anaheed

Won Warwick Farm 794m heavy track Oct 8 trial in nice style and good time. Bolted in for us on debut at Randwick scoring by 4L. Was a good win second up in the Sweet Embrace, then caught wide last start when 4th. Wet tracker brings her into calculations

12. Kiamichi

Solid win last start but time slowish. Another Godolphin runner but think she’ll find others too classy

13. Catch Me

Impressed sitting outside the leader and sprinting well home for 2nd under little pressure beaten a nose in Sep 17 849m Kensington trial. Time 2.9L above par, 2.8L above par last sectional, 2nd quickest of all trials. Hugely impressive winning the Gimcrack in blistering time after sitting back and wide. Tuned up winning a Pakenham 900m Jan 15 trial in good time, and won impressively first up for us after racing wide without cover from the outside gate. Forget last two starts when she had issues. Blinkers off today. Can surprise here

14. Vincere Volare

 Speedy customer who won first start. Solid 3rd to Tenley in the Reisling but think will find this too tough

15. Exhilarates

Won the Magic Millions then a solid 2nd to Tenley last start. Believe there are others with stronger credentials in this event

16. Loving Gaby

Ran 6th in the Blue Diamond in first ride of the day after winning on debut. Might find this a bit short / too soon

Final Thoughts

Back

1 Yes Yes Yes ($8) rates on top. The carpark barrier draw (19) is a crying shame but he looks the best 2yo going around with an impressive last start win following an impressive trial

5 Cosmic Force ($4.60) we have followed since before his debut. Destroyed them last start and repeat puts him right in this

Best Roughies

13 Catch Me ($41) looked a superstar 2yo early doors. Failed past coupon but blinkers come off and will settle at the back. Can surprise and steam home over the top of them here

11 Anaheed is going well this prep and importantly handles the wet

Savers

2 Microphone ($7.50) maps perfectly to figure here

9 Tenley ($6) undefeated. Gets a long way back. Will be hitting the line hard.