Mat Smith has been a form analyst for the last 10 years.
Mat has previously provided highly successful tipping services to other providers, including one between August 2014 and March 2016 that made 237.3 units profit at 15% POT, before the tipping organisation moved into sports data services and stopped offering horse racing tips. Mat also offered a free newsletter demonstrating how effective his speed and sectional based ratings were. Results were based on proportional stakes at SP, and between January and October 2018 that generated 62.7u profit at 18.5% POT.
Mat explains his journey and approach below.
"I started out using the 'tried and true' principles of racing, but after a few years learned that using public racing data alone did not provide a lot of value since everyone has access to it. I began to experiment with speed ratings and realised that there were not that many people using them, and there was a significant edge in speed based data when formulated using verified race and sectional times. Whilst sectional times are now being made more publicly available, times on their own are often misleading, so having access to a proper ratings database is important. The data revolution led me to start developing a model to combine key form and market based data along with speed and sectional ratings to find the right horses to analyse, and the right races to bet in. I find this works best with reliable data and good, consistent horses, so I choose to focus on Saturday Metropolitan meetings, targeting Sydney and Melbourne which is where the large majority of selections come from.
The model narrows down the number of races for me to analyse and once I have reviewed the model selections and the other horses in the race, I determine if the race represents a betting opportunity or if I move on to the next one. It is a very selective process with an average of 4-5 selections per Saturday, sometimes there are none and other days there are 10 or more, but I never make a selection that I feel is not a genuine winning chance based on the information I have available. Sometimes the model misses horses that are not popular on form or market factors, yet are strong performers from a speed perspective, so there is a small percentage of horses of this nature that make up the selections, along with some mid week blackbookers that are placed well. I used to try to beat the market but I believe now that the key to winning is to verify the market and key form factors with accurate speed ratings to find strong winning chances.
Having previously provided selections for a very profitable racing service, I understand the need to have a professional approach and treat betting like a business, and this is how I operate my service."
We spoke with Mat last year regarding starting a service with us, and he advised that once he was confident in the performance of the results, he would discuss joining the team.
Since then results were monitored through the below timeline:
The results summary was compiled through a combination of modelling and testing and then paper trading to forward test and ensure the results would be consistent, timeline is as follows:
All bets are sent at 11.15am, and every bet result is recorded simply at BOB (Best Tote or official Top Fluc)
This service comes with our Ongoing Exclusive Profit Guarantee Refund for all Quarterly and Yearly Memberships
We’re so confident in this package, if you don't profit over the period of your subscription based on official results, we will refund your next payment in full!
Simply send us an e-mail as soon as your payment is made to request the immediate full refund.