Q&A below with our English Premier League analyst.
Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.
I have been betting full time professionally for over a decade. Soccer, as it was when I was a kid nearly 40 years ago, was my number one sport and English Premier football is the league I’ve predominantly followed.
How did you turn into a successful long-term punter?
Many hours of education in a professional environment, plus taking advantage learning from the knowledge of other very successful punters.
How did you get into EPL? Have you always been a successful punter on football? If not, how did you turn into a successful long-term punter on football?
My mother is from Liverpool, England, so when we were holidaying there as a child my bond with Liverpool and English football was formed. I wasn’t always successful as I didn’t understand how to identify value or have the strategies to take advantage of it. I developed my own strategies targeting consistency. I combine this with a disciplined approach, so I don’t bet on every game or even every round.
How do you identify your bets? What are the key areas or statistics you analyse? Where do you find the biggest edges?
I treat my analysis by trying to identify information that isn’t available publically. Information that can’t be used in statistical models. Sometimes the result of a match isn’t a true reflection of what happened. In other words, I conduct video analysis and focus seeking the actual level of performance. I have many other edges that consistently produce great profits but obviously they are not something that I am prepared to talk about or reveal.
Why do you believe you do so well on EPL?
By not following the crowd and by keeping it simple. By combining a part conservative, with a part aggressive approach that keeps bankroll fluctuations in check but stakes to maximise value.
Another important thing is identifying danger situations and knowing when not to bet. I have friends who will take many different ‘novelty’ options in a multi in the hopes of a big payout. Bookies often promote them when those multis come in, but the true odds are ridiculously small and not true value.
What else do you look at when assessing matches and determining bets?
The selections are sent well before final teams are announced, so it’s also understanding the managers’ mindset in relation to team selection, tactics and what matches they have on the horizon.
How will your service work? What types of bets will you send, how many bets per week, unit bank recommended, estimate of weekly units spent?
‘Win’ bets. If there are two selections (i.e. win/draw) we record assuming win bets on the two selections in those cases, but alternately advanced members could lay on Betfair if they wish. In a round there can be zero bets, or six leg multis, although both are uncommon. Unit size is usually in the region of 0.5 to 3 units. An over 10 unit spend for a round would be reasonably rare. On average we have invested 5u per round so far this season.
Will you send future and long term bets?
Not too often on the EPL, but World Cup and Euro Championships may provide a few bets.
What time will bets normally be released?
Bets will normally be released at least 24hrs before the first betting match of the round. Usually Friday evening 7-8pm for a typical round, unless the games schedule dictates otherwise. Advanced notice will be provided for the release time of each bet to ensure members can be ready to place the bets.
What information do you provide with each bet?
Selection, stake and available odds.
What are your previous results? What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?
So far this season we have made 41u profit at 29% POT. This season we missed a couple of multis due to Man City faltering, however past results are not an indicator of the future and there may be some regression to the mean as odds setters have caught up on certain teams this season. We can’t predict a change of managers/injuries, and the odds ahead of time, but when you have a simple methodology I expect profits will continue at similar levels to the past.
*Note Winning Edge Investments would like to point out that unlike our other services, the results stated for the season up to 26 Feb are based on tips sent to Winning Edge Investments' team and results collated by an Independent Contractor, not publicly verifiable results to paying members
Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use? What odds comparison sites are the best to use?
Last season Unibet didn’t seem too worried about Betfair, and had their own prices, but this season they seem to be much closer to them, but these anomalies can occur. However they are usually the best bookie so multis are most likely to be with them. Alternatively TAB or Topsport might be asleep and have the best odds on a selection. Betfair will often be best odds especially on the longer priced selections.
How will the odds be recorded?
Based on the 2nd best price available with Australian corporate bookmakers.
Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the game start?
Price fluctuations may be difficult to predict. Final team selections will have an influence, some may firm, and longshots in particular may drift. However, when selections are released I believe the individual selections are value and a good chance of firming, and odds will be recorded on the price when the bet is sent.
Will I be able to get a decent bet on?
Betfair is often best price with substantial liquidity particularly closer to match time, so getting on is not an issue.
Are bets based on a 100 unit betting bank?
Any profit guarantee?
Yes on all quarterly and annual memberships.
The Fair Odds Recording Methodology for all bets sent will be based on the 2nd best price of Australian Bookies only, excluding all Overseas bookmakers and Betfair, so there should be no problem getting bets on for punters of all bet sizes, and results will be very easily achievable. Bets are usually sent on a Friday, once all bookies have prices up and are taking a decent bet to ensure all members can get set.
This service comes with our Profit Guarantee for the season membership. (We are so confident in our package that if you don't profit over the season, we will double the period of your package for FREE! If it doesn't make a profit through our official results, you will get an additional season for FREE! Given members subscribe at different times, simply advise us within 72 hours of being billed of this losing period to be eligible for the refund).
|Year||Cumulative P/L Profit Units||Cumulative Units Invested||POT %||ROI %||Profit ($100 Units)|
|Overall||26.7||157.5||17.0 %||26.7 %||$2,671|