The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks

The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks

The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula:

 

Formula longest losing streak

 

n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets)
ln = natural logarithm1
P = probability2
| .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’

Simply put, let's say you are betting on Heads in a coin toss (with a 50% expected value). You are still going to have runs of losing streaks and winning streaks.

Over 500 coin tosses, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 9 losers in a row during that period.

If your Strike Rate is 40%, you are LIKELY to have a losing run of at least 12 losers in a row during that period.

It's very important to understand and appreciate this, and realise that even on a losing day, the next winner and winning streak is also statistically set to occur.

On the positive side, over 500 coin tosses, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 9 winners in a row during that period, and if your Strike Rate is 40%, you are also LIKELY to have a winning run of 7 winners in a row during that period.

In fact, on say a 40% win strike rate, the expected time of occurrence of 5 losers in a row is after just 13 bets, and 10 losers in a row after just 165 bets.

Once you aware of this, you realise the power of betting with a bank, and simply following the staking and not getting too emotional over any winning or losing period.

Stick with your services and the strategies, and you will be rewarded.

The world's most successful investor, Warren Buffet (who incidentally started his career in horse racing) once famously stated 'the Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient".

The statement is equally adept for punters also.