BLOGS

Week in Review

Saturday 19th September

+2.6u at 21.6% POT

2 winners from 6 selections

33% Strike Rate

Winners: Orderofthegarter $3.10, Behemoth $4.20

Comments: Although we ended up the day with a win, I feel we were very unlucky not to get the win with Think It Over when he lost momentum into the straight where if he had clear running, I believe he wins that race. That was the difference between a further 12u profit on the day and brings us up to 53.3u now over the past 3 weeks that we have been painfully close to winning. We are nearing a break out run where the variance the we looked at last week swings back into our favour and the results go our way for big profit weeks.

Selection Review

Think It Over (2ND 1.3L from an 12u return)  -  jumped well and was in a great spot behind the leaders, when he rounded the turn Boss wanted to go outside but had no run so he cut back inside and was held up losing momentum. At this point he had to try and get the horse going again but for a staying type horse, this was a tall order and he couldn’t make up the ground.

Montefilia  (4TH 2.3L from a 19u return) – I can’t find any excuses for her, perhaps she prefers the softer tracks as she looked to hit a flat spot when trying to accelerate in the straight, she did look to get going once the race was over so she may be better on a good surface over more ground.

Aidensfield (2ND 1.5L from a 6.6u return) – gave the winner too much start who had a good run behind the speed and improved from their last start meeting.

Orderofthegarter (1ST 6.2u return) – given a great ride by Oliver (finally) and got the win, I noted that there was a lot of money for him late on the tote suggesting that a few big punters also thought he would be winning.

Behemoth (1ST 8.4u return) – he ended up a bit further back than I had anticipated and he had to fight for clear running around the 200m but he got clear and was too good.

Lyre (UNP) – she was slow out and dipped as she clipped the heels of the horse in front of her, she didn’t have her usual dash in the straight but was very well supported so I am inclined to forgive this run.

September Results To Date

+1.4u at 4.1% POT

5 winners from 17 selections

29% Strike Rate

Overall Service Results

+25.8u at 20% POT

7/11 Winning Weeks

2/2 Winning Months

Long Term Model Results

65/91 Winning Days – 71.4%

16/20 Winning Months – 80%

45.2% Strike rate

+412.1u at 48.3% POT

Staking

I have been asked about why we have flat staking on all selections instead of proportional staking which is a very valid question. I take a slightly different approach to a lot of other racing professionals as I don’t work to a strict rated price for each horse given there are so many unknown factors in racing. I determine a price guide for all selections which I compare to the market prices to see if a bet is likely, horses that are well under the price guide by 11am are not considered as bets.

I don’t profess to be able to price a horse better than what the market does as even the very best professionals in the world can’t do this on a consistent basis, instead I follow this simple but effective strategy.

• Allow my model to find the right races/horses based on the input form and market factors
• Use speed ratings and personal analysis to verify or reject the model selections
• Develop a price guide for each possible selection and compare to the market prices available
• Bet when a profitable scenario is likely and allow the market to determine the final starting price

Without a strict rated price to stake to, it is impossible to determine an amount to stake and with a long term average win bet odds of $3.28 (at the time of writing) and 45% S/R, flat staking is a very profitable option with low overall risk to the betting bank.

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo

Week in Review

Saturday 19th September

+2.6u at 21.6% POT

2 winners from 6 selections

33% Strike Rate

Winners: Orderofthegarter $3.10, Behemoth $4.20

Comments: Although we ended up the day with a win, I feel we were very unlucky not to get the win with Think It Over when he lost momentum into the straight where if he had clear running, I believe he wins that race. That was the difference between a further 12u profit on the day and brings us up to 53.3u now over the past 3 weeks that we have been painfully close to winning. We are nearing a break out run where the variance the we looked at last week swings back into our favour and the results go our way for big profit weeks.

Selection Review

Think It Over (2ND 1.3L from an 12u return)  -  jumped well and was in a great spot behind the leaders, when he rounded the turn Boss wanted to go outside but had no run so he cut back inside and was held up losing momentum. At this point he had to try and get the horse going again but for a staying type horse, this was a tall order and he couldn’t make up the ground.

Montefilia  (4TH 2.3L from a 19u return) – I can’t find any excuses for her, perhaps she prefers the softer tracks as she looked to hit a flat spot when trying to accelerate in the straight, she did look to get going once the race was over so she may be better on a good surface over more ground.

Aidensfield (2ND 1.5L from a 6.6u return) – gave the winner too much start who had a good run behind the speed and improved from their last start meeting.

Orderofthegarter (1ST 6.2u return) – given a great ride by Oliver (finally) and got the win, I noted that there was a lot of money for him late on the tote suggesting that a few big punters also thought he would be winning.

Behemoth (1ST 8.4u return) – he ended up a bit further back than I had anticipated and he had to fight for clear running around the 200m but he got clear and was too good.

Lyre (UNP) – she was slow out and dipped as she clipped the heels of the horse in front of her, she didn’t have her usual dash in the straight but was very well supported so I am inclined to forgive this run.

September Results To Date

+1.4u at 4.1% POT

5 winners from 17 selections

29% Strike Rate

Overall Service Results

+25.8u at 20% POT

7/11 Winning Weeks

2/2 Winning Months

Long Term Model Results

65/91 Winning Days – 71.4%

16/20 Winning Months – 80%

45.2% Strike rate

+412.1u at 48.3% POT

Staking

I have been asked about why we have flat staking on all selections instead of proportional staking which is a very valid question. I take a slightly different approach to a lot of other racing professionals as I don’t work to a strict rated price for each horse given there are so many unknown factors in racing. I determine a price guide for all selections which I compare to the market prices to see if a bet is likely, horses that are well under the price guide by 11am are not considered as bets.

I don’t profess to be able to price a horse better than what the market does as even the very best professionals in the world can’t do this on a consistent basis, instead I follow this simple but effective strategy.

• Allow my model to find the right races/horses based on the input form and market factors
• Use speed ratings and personal analysis to verify or reject the model selections
• Develop a price guide for each possible selection and compare to the market prices available
• Bet when a profitable scenario is likely and allow the market to determine the final starting price

Without a strict rated price to stake to, it is impossible to determine an amount to stake and with a long term average win bet odds of $3.28 (at the time of writing) and 45% S/R, flat staking is a very profitable option with low overall risk to the betting bank.

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo