Week in Review
Saturday 12th September
-6.0u at -100% POT
0 winners from 3 selections
0% Strike Rate
Comments: A frustrating day with another 12.9u beaten by 1L or less making it 41.3u beaten by 1L or less in the past 2 weeks. This is the period when variance is working against us as is has done on several occasions throughout the model’s 21 months of operation – I will delve into that further shortly.
She’s Ideel (3RD 0.3L from an 8.8u return) – she was closer to the leaders in the run today and despite running the best last 400m and 2nd best last 200m of the race, she wasn’t quite able to get there.
Masked Crusader (3RD 1L from a 4.1u return) – he had no luck at all from the wide draw forced to race effectively 4WNC for almost the entire race, despite this he was still able to break 11sec for the last 200m bettered only by Fituse who had cover throughout.
Overlord (UNP) – gear change didn’t help and he missed the start but got into a good position around midfield, about the 750m mark he became very unbalanced and lost several lengths. He gave nothing in the straight and finished last, the stewards report indicated he lost a shoe but perhaps there is more to it. My model and I have a high opinion of the horse when you factor he was beaten <4L by Rothfire in the JJ Atkins and we know how good he is, unfortunately his racing manners are letting us down and he will not be considered for future races.
September Results To Date
-1.2u at -5.5% POT
3 winners from 11 selections
27% Strike Rate
Overall Service Results
+23.2u at 20% POT
6/10 Winning Weeks
2/2 Winning Months
Long Term Model Results
64/90 Winning Days – 71.1%
16/20 Winning Months – 80%
45.4% Strike rate
+409.5u at 48.6% POT
When Variance Works Against You
As I eluded to earlier, we have missed 41.3u in the past 2 weeks by 1L or less and this can be extremely frustrating for everyone however, this is something that happens on a regular basis throughout any kind of betting and particularly in racing where there are so many unknown variables.
The model has already experienced 2 significant periods of negative/neutral variance as detailed below.
From 4th May 2019 to 20th July 2019 the model went 5/12 winning days with a -0.1u loss @ -0.1% POT before rebounding to hit a run of 8/9 winning days and a +63u profit @ +87.5% POT.
From 21st September 2019 to 7th December 2019 the model went 6/12 winning days (including 3 straight losing days for -12u) with a -3u loss @ -3.3% POT. This was part of an overall period extending through to the 1st February 2020 for 9/20 winning days and a +15.1u profit @ +9.2% POT. Despite being a period of negative variance, the model still shows a profit.
From this negative variance, the model went into significant run of 31 betting days from the 8th February 2020 to the 8th August 2020 with 26 winning days and a +244.9u profit @ +72.9% POT.
Although we have had a negative variance period over the last 5 weeks resulting in a -4.2u loss, we have been painfully close to some massive returns with 58.2u beaten by 1.1L or less so it is just a matter of sticking solid to the proven methodology and waiting for the results to swing back in our favour.
Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet