BLOGS

Wednesday 21st & Saturday 24th October

-2.6u at -18.5% POT

2 winners from 7 selections

28.5% Strike Rate

Winners: Hilo $3.10, Icebath $2.60

Comments: The rain came earlier than I expected at Randwick and we ended up with a scenario I was trying to avoid by not betting at The Valley with a deteriorating track, combined with more poor riding tactics and it was an average day in Sydney. Another close beat with an 8.8u return missed by less than 1L taking us to 45.7u missed by 1L or less so far this month.

Selection Review

Mariamia $13.00 (UNP) – unfortunately, she didn’t show the dash from her previous start, some late money saw her firm from $13 into $10 but she did not run up to expectation.

Destination $3.0 (UNP) – he didn’t look at all comfortable on the wet surface and his figures show that he is a much better horse on top of the ground, I had hoped this race would be run before the rain came as he was clearly superior on form and speed coming in but that was not the case.

Elizabeel $6.50 (UNP) – for the 2nd straight week this “on pace” horse has been ridden off the speed midfield or worse with another poor race tactic, the track was clearly giving leader advantage due to the conditions and what made it worse was Peltzer was left with a picnic up front and the “wet track specialist” was gifted the win. She was solidly backed from $6.50 into $4.60 late on the basis that she was fit off a 7 day back up and would race on speed and run her own race, it’s situations like this that are really frustrating as she was never given a chance.

Hilo $3.10 (1st 6.2u return) – he was set up very well for this win, Rachel King was positive out the gate and he controlled the race from up front and was able to win.

Icebath $2.60 (1st 5.2u return) – the race pretty much went exactly as I had expected however given the conditions on the day by race time, she was more than capable of producing a strong performance on a wet track and looked an even better chance of winning which she did by a big margin.

Bottom Line $2.80 (3rd) – this horse was heavily supported late from $2.80 into $2.30 which gave me a lot of confidence that people smarter than me were also on this horse, he had a great run behind the leader but when asked for an effort he did not produce.

Dom To Shoot $4.40 (2nd 0.9L from an 8.8u return) – he was probably a length or 2 back further than he needed to be but was travelling well, he was building momentum into the turn but was forced out very wide to get around a slow horse which caused a loss of momentum at a crucial time. He picked up well and was running home strongly but just couldn’t quite get there. Overall it was a great run just didn’t get the luck at the right time which cost us a winning day.

Beaufort Park – race abandoned due to heavy rain and surface water on the track

Summary

Another week where we were close but just fell short, we’ll look towards next week to finish the month strong but I will be keeping a close eye on weather and track conditions given the forecasts do not look good and we could be faced with wet tracks again next week.

October Results To Date

+41.6u at 49% POT

11 winners from 22 selections

50% Strike Rate

Speed Stars Service Results (since inception 11/07/2020)

+65.2u at 35.2% POT

9/16 Winning Weeks

2/3 Winning Months

Long Term Model Results

67/98 Winning Days – 68.37%

16/21 Winning Months – 76.19%

45.1% Strike rate

+451.5u at 49.6% POT

Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b3FTzao9K8bX4F9gMMEytTCzdP0eH11U3HnFSehqJYo