Week in Review


Saturday 10th October

+34.6u at 288% POT

5 winners from 6 selections

83% Strike Rate

Winners: Criaderas $2.10, Dirty Work $4.20, Arcadia Queen $5.50, Ole Kirk $4.40, Beaufort Park $7.10

Comments: An absolute fill up with 5 of our 6 selections winning, this was one of those days that almost makes all the close beats we have had over the last 6 weeks seem insignificant - almost. It was the biggest winning day I have had since I set up my model and we are well on target for the biggest winning month as well.


Selection Review

Criaderas (1ST 4.2u return) – he still went back to last but he reeled them in quite easily in the end, still has plenty of improvement to come and looks a great chance in the Golden Eagle off that run.

Dirty Work (1ST 8.4u return) – he looked too good on paper and he got back quite a bit further than I had anticipated but was able to run over the top of them making the win that much better.

Arcadia Queen (1ST 11.0u return) – I have been a fan of this horse for a long time and it was very satisfying to see her demolish Russian Camelot today. She has always been a better horse than him but she has been well below her best while recovering from a torrid campaign. I am very confident she will be winning the Cox Plate in 2 weeks time if she gets a Good track.

Hungry Heart (UNP) – unfortunately she wasn’t able to back up 7 days after a brutal speed in the Flight Stakes, she got a much faster pace than she needed in order to overcome flatness. The market heavily supported her so which was a positive sign.

Ole Kirk (1ST 8.8u return) – I can’t believe the price, he looked the best horse on paper coming into the race and I really thought he would be well under $4.00 but regardless he proved too strong and got the win.

Beaufort Park (1ST 14.2u return) – hats off to Travis Wolfgram who just knows this horse so well with 5 wins from 6 rides, he pushed into a forward position after he jumped well and ultimately it was the key to victory. He didn’t have his mind on the job for a good portion of the straight but he put his head down and really got to the line strongly to win.


October Results To Date

+49.4u at 329% POT

7 winners from 8 selections

87.5% Strike Rate


Overall Service Results

+73u at 46.5% POT

9/14 Winning Weeks

2/3 Winning Months


Long Term Model Results

67/94 Winning Days – 71.28%

16/21 Winning Months – 76.19%

45.6% Strike rate

+459.3u at 52.0% POT


Extra Meetings

Just a quick note to let you know that I will also be previewing some of the bigger mid week meetings throughout the Carnival, there may not be any selections but keep an eye out at the 11:15am release time. These meetings will include:

Wednesday 14th October – Blue Sapphire Day

Friday 23rd October – Manikato Stakes Night

Wednesday 28th October – Geelong Cup Day

Tuesday 3rd November – Melbourne Cup Day

Thursday 4th November – Oaks Day


Long Term Model Results Spreadsheet