Getting the best possible odds: Part 4

The aim is for every member overall to beat official results, or at the very least match them. Below is a summary of the best ways to beat official results:

1) Betfair

Betfair odds are not included in official results. However, most people know that Betfair routinely offer the best odds available in the market for horse racing, particularly during the last 15 minutes of betting.

I could write an essay on the prices available on Betfair on some of our winners, but a handful of examples are below, and as you can see, at all spectrums of the market you can get great prices on Betfair even just at Betfair SP:

Emmadee: Official $101, $260 Betfair SP (got out to $560 on Betfair in betting)

Balrov: Official $23, $60 Betfair SP (got out to $120 on Betfair in betting)

Time And Truth: Official $23, $80 Betfair SP (got out to $140 on Betfair in betting)

Fish Bones Fry: Official $34, $60 Betfair SP (got out to $90 on Betfair in betting)

Shazee Lee: Official $56, $100 Betfair SP (got out to $110 on Betfair in betting)

Jade Hue: Official $5, $6.58 Betfair SP

Desired View: Official $5.50, $10.50 Betfair SP

Goldbo: Official $5.50, $9.69 Betfair SP

Tilly’s Waltz: Official $6, $9 Betfair SP

Buster’s Secret: Official $6, $7.60 Betfair SP

Champawi: Official $7, $11.75 Betfair SP

Tangent: $7.50, $10.45 Betfair SP

Coolcat Dancer: Official $8, $11.80 Betfair SP

Jopa: Official $9.50, $16 Betfair SP

Legendary Luke: Official $11, $14.49 Betfair SP

Sandhill Star: $13, $19.46 Betfair SP

Delagos: $15, $23.90 Betfair SP

Excites Zelady: $19, $29.74 Betfair SP

Cruisy Bek: Official $26, $37.38 Betfair SP

2) Bookies not on Dynamic Odds

A very large proportion of members bet using Dynamic Odds, and take the best available prices from that selection of bookies.

As a result, there are several bookies whose prices are not shown on Dynamic Odds. They are also not considered in official results or betting advice.

However, many members do bet with these bookies, and often find they get greater prices than with the main bookies. The other bonus is that as these bookies are lesser known and not on Dynamic Odds, their prices are often available a lot longer, so if you happen to miss an early price, it is often worth looking at these bookies to see if the price may have held, as they often do hold much longer than the bookies on Dynamic Odds.

Options include: Betting.Club, Palmerbet, Madbookie and Bluebet.

3) Horses drifting to better prices than quoted before alert sent

This actually happens fairly often. By the time the alert is sent, often a horse has drifted out to prices greater than stated, but nonetheless that stated price is recorded. There was one horse advised at $3.20 when the SMS was sent, which was $4.40 about a minute later. Nonetheless, $3.20 was recorded as the price for that winner.

4) Bookies offering better prices than quoted after alert sent

There are actually occasions where bets are sent, but there’s still 1 or 2 bookies who haven’t put up prices yet.

Even though early prices have been crunched, often these bookies will post their analyst’s initial prices. I can recall occasions where we have backed a horse from say $21 into $11, and then 1 or 2 bookies have opened 15 minutes later at $21. Those prices often sit there for a while as most members have already placed their bets. Worth keeping an eye open for.

5) Monitoring and betting late when market percentages are lower and more in your favour

Bets are sent usually between 9am and 11am, but the market percentages are larger at these times. Whilst we often get outstanding prices on horses that have been mispriced and firm, on most occasions natural betting movements mean the prices drift back out towards start time as the bookies start to compete and the market percentages reduce.

This means that often a horse drifts back out, but then gets backed again very late by big players. So, although the starting price may be close to or even lower to the early price, oftentimes the horse has been much larger odds during betting.

Below are 3 examples that spring to mind, but these types of market movements are commonplace:

Delagos: Opened $11, drifted out to $31 Corporates and $30 Betfair just prior to the start, but only paid $15 SP

Maccy Fields: Opened $8.50, drifted out to $14 Betfair, firmed back into $8.50 SP

Zerprise Journey: Opened $4.20, drifted out to $6.60 in betting on Betfair, and then firmed back into $4.10 Best Tote/SP

6) Not betting if a horse has become overbet

Oftentimes a horse gets over bet and backed down to a silly price, particularly at the shorter end of the market. You can choose to simply not bet when the value isn’t there, which will save you units in the long run against taking ‘unders’.

7) Laying back a runner on Betfair if the horse has become overbet

Some smart members lay back runners that firm dramatically. This enables them to effectively have a ‘free bet’ on a runner, or even guarantee a profit regardless of whether a horse wins or not. This grants some members the opportunity to substantially reduce variance and bet reasonably risk free, particularly when backing runners expected to firm dramatically (F).