Getting the best possible odds: Part 1

Through database analysis I was able to expose some enormous edges and opportunities, and narrow down the key KPI factors that contribute towards horses winnings races at various tracks and class levels. Many of these are ignored or not factored in by the bookies when setting their prices, or the wider market. It's a unique approach and combination of figures and rankings that I've developed and are now utilising, and one not being replicated elsewhere, hence the big edge.

I want to make sure all members new and old are armed and ready to maximise their profits, so below are some thoughts to assist you going forward.

Firstly, it’s clear that a fair number of our horses are firming and winning.

What’s interesting is for the most part it isn’t actually our money that’s making these horses firm so dramatically. The prices for a lot of these runners have firmed late in betting, well after we have placed our bets. At the end of the day the big betting syndicates bet late, and are identifying the horses we back as value even after we have backed them, which demonstrates what a big edge we hold over the market.

This gives us a big advantage in securing the best prices before the other sharp punters catch onto the big bookie mistakes. For example, Stage Girl stayed at $126 for nearly half an hour after the SMS before starting to get backed and eventually tumbling into $21 before winning. Another good example was Dream With Me who was $34 with multiple bookies at the time of the SMS, and stayed that price for over 4.5 hours and was only heavily backed late in betting starting $14.

I send bets out generally between 9am and 11am, when every bookmaker available has prices. By this time most bookies are fairly aligned, most prices are similar, and there’s usually only one or two flucs/rolls difference from one bookie to another. This means everyone should be obtaining similar prices overall (sometimes better, sometimes worse than ‘official’).

My analysis has shown that placing bets when the SMS and/or e-mail is received is often the best way to go. There are more firmers than drifters overall given the big edge over the market. 

However, we’ve also had some dramatic drifters win, including:

Low Flying: Officially recorded $7, started $17.90 best tote and over $20 Betfair SP

Saxon Coast: Officially recorded $4.20, started $8.20 best tote, $9.40 last matched BF

Speedy Squib: Officially recorded $17, started $31 Corporates, $30 best tote and Betfair

Emmadee: Officially recorded $101, started $260 Betfair SP and got out to $560 Betfair

Balrov: Officially recorded $23, started $51 Corporates and $120 Betfair

Time And Truth: Officially recorded $23, started $51 Corporates and $140 Betfair

Fish Bones Fry: Officially recorded $34, started $51 Corporates and $90 Betfair

Shazee Lee: Officially recorded $56, started $71 Corporates & best tote, & $110 Betfair

I mentioned in the weekly wrap 3 days before Low Flying won that members should look to increase their stake on a dramatic drifter.

The Kelly Criterion (widely regarded as the best formula to use to determine the otimal size of a bet), suggests that to maximise long term profits, the greater the edge, the more you should bet. So, as an example if you rate a horse a $3 chance and can get $7 in the market, you should bet MORE than if you could obtain $5 in the market.

This theorem, and the fact that there is no evidence whatsoever from our selections that dramatic drifters perform poorly (in fact of the big drifters, their winning strike rate at great prices is high), is why I recommend having another go at our runners if its price drifts say 50% or more above the recommended price. Doing so on just the 3 drifters mentioned above would have yielded an additional 22-unit profit.

In reviewing some of the main drifters I’ve noticed two interesting things. Firstly, in WA they can drift markedly and win. The market appears quite backward there and underdeveloped, with market movements often not meaning much. Secondly, horses coming off a longish spell (say 120 days plus) also tend to drift markedly and win. It seems the market takes a cue to see if there’s any support for a first up runner, and if not, it can just keep drifting and drifting as everyone avoids it. But often that can just be that the stable and connections don’t bet, or have the same uncertainty. The results show that if the figures mark it as a value bet and it rates high on the KPI factors I look at, then there is no issue if a first up runner drifts.