Dean Evan's Golden Rose Runner by Runner Preview

It's a high quality edition of the Golden Rose this year, with plenty of value driven by a surprisingly short false favourite in the race.

 

Historical Race Profile

 

Over the past 8 years, virtually all winners and close 2nds in the race were 2nd up. Big Positive: Castelvecchio, Prince Fawaz, Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick

Only one was 3rd up. Slight Negative: Exceedance, Dawn Passage, Yao Dash

None were 4th up. Big Negative: Bivouac

Most came from Run To The Rose 1200m 2 weeks before - ran well, in the first 4 Big Positive: Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes, Exceedance, Kubrick

Some from the 1500m Stan Fox/Dulcify 2 weeks before, 3rd or 4th Slight Positive: Castelvecchio

Some from 1300m 3 weeks before: Slight Positive: Yao Dash

Chris Waller and Godolphin (through a mix of trainers, O'Shea, Snowden) have dominated the race (5 of last 8 winners) Big Positive: Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick, Bivouac

Waller horses - Had run in Brisbane, over mile G1 JJ Atkins Big Positive: Kubrick,

7 of last 7 won a black type race as a 2yo Big Positive: Castelvecchio, Bivouac, Prince Fawaz, Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick

6 of the last 7 winners ran in G1 as a 2yo Big Positive: Castelvecchio, Prince Fawaz, Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick

None have won or run 2nd in their first prep, nor with less than 3 starts: Big Negative: Yao Dash

Is a race for colts, geldings have never run a place Big Negative: Yao Dash

 

1 Castelvecchio 

Current Price: $11

3 Big Positives, 1 Slight Positive

Talented colt with a powerful finish who won the $2m Inglis Millennium and the G1 Champagne Stakes as a 2yo. Ran 4th first up in the Dulcify, a race that has produced the last two winners of this race, The Autumn Sun & Trapeze Artist. 

 

2 Bivouac 

Current Price: $2.50

3 Big Positives, 1 Big Negative

Won the Run To The Rose, but this is his first attempt past 1200m, and goes into this race 4th up (no horse has ever won or gone close with that profile). Looks a false favourite to me, has some positives with the lead up form and the trainer in particular, but doesn't profile like past winners at all and a strong 1400m remains a query. I feel he's a B Grader who has been flattered by being up and going ahead of the rest so far. Is a lay for me at the price

 

3 Prince Fawaz 

Current Price: $41

3 Big Positives

Highly regarded colt who won the G1 JJ Atkins as a 2yo. Was plain first up when 6th beaten 7.5L in the Run To The Rose first up, but reports are that he has come on immensely in trackwork since that run. Has some strong profiles and is a huge price. A win wouldn't shock

 

4 Yes Yes Yes 

Current Price:$6

5 Big Positives

Looks the clear horse to beat, and I'm surprised he isn't favourite. Has a close to perfect Golden Rose winning profile, running 2nd in the Run To The Rose first up, trained by Waller, having won a black type race as a 2yo. Trialled like a topliner (sitting back and charging home under no pressure for 2nd to Dubious who was hard ridden in Canterbury 895m Feb 25 trial in quick time +7.9 LS +2) before winning the Pago Pago as a 2yo, then had no luck in the Golden Slipper after a terrible ride. Trial this prep was enormous, got back and hit the line very strongly under restraint for a close 2nd in +2.6 LS +4.3, quickest of 10 900m trials on the day. Impressed first up in the Run To The Rose running 2nd, and Waller will have him primed here. Looks very hard to beat

NB: Trial Spy Members took $11-$12 in Futures Markets for YES YES YES last month

 

5 Exceedance 

Current Price: $5.50

1 Big Positive, 1 Slight Negative

Doesn't profile like a Golden Rose winner. Has a powerful finish and can reel off fast sectionals, but this is a high quality field and he maps to settle last and potentially have to go around them all. Is short in the market for that task given his profile, although his 3rd in the Run To The Rose looked good. Has ability but this is a big ask, and I prefer his profile for the Caulfield Guineas next start

 

6 Kubrick 

Current Price: $13

6 Big Positives

Profiles perfectly as a Golden Rose winner for Waller. Chris Waller had the quinella last year in this race with The Autumn Sun & Zousain, who had run the quinella in the JJ Atkins G1 in Brisbane as 2yos. Waller’s other winner of the Golden Rose, Zoustar, also ran a close 2nd in the JJ Atkins. Kubrick ran a very close 2nd in the JJ Atkins, at only his 3rd start, off a non ideal lead up (1000m debut and 1200m 2nd up). Fits the mould of the ideal Waller Golden Rose type. He was being prepared at the Gold Coast stable initially, as were Winx, Zoustar and Brazen Beau. Ran a solid 4th in the Run To The Rose first up, as did Zoustar before winning this race. Talented colt who looks a big threat here.

NB: Dean's Winners Members took $16-$17 in Futures Markets for KUBRICK last month

 

7 Dawn Passage 

Current Price: $26

0 Positives, 1 Slight Negative

Could only manage 5th beaten 7L in the Run To The Rose and doesn't have the profile to be winning here

 

8 Yao Dash 

Current Price: $6

1 Slight Positive, 1 Slight Negative, 2 Big Negatives

Won Randwick 12 July 735m trial by a head beating G2 Time To Reign in quickest time and final sectional of 16 trials on the day. Ran 2nd to G1 performer Athiri in Randwick 30 Jul trial beaten 0.6L after racing wide. Has been a Trial Spy horse and members have backed him in both his debut win at Canterbury, and his second up win at Rosehill. Did benefit from a leaders bias when winning at Rosehill defeating Funstar. Is a funny one, as is a Trial Spy identified horse who has plenty of talent, but I am very surprised at the price. Has a lot of historical negatives being a gelding, 3rd up in his first prep. I could have entertained at a big price, but he doesn't deserve to be so short in the market and is unders currently

 

Summary

 

Yes Yes Yes: I believe this is the clear horse to beat. The most talented horse in the race, who has the perfect profile to win here and then go on to win the Coolmore down the Flemington straight in November

Kubrick: Amazing value, this horse should not be double figure odds. A talented colt who will be primed for this, and will give it a big shake, followed by the Caulfield Guineas where he will also be hard to beat

Castelvecchio: Has a powerful finish and can upset the favourites 

Prince Fawaz: Is the forgotten horse, and is a crazy price. Will run much better than the current market price suggests

 

For mine, Bivouac is a false favourite and big unders at 6/4 currently. Whilst Exceedance and Yao Dash are talented, they meet a hot field here, and I believe their profiles are against winning this event on Saturday.