BLOGS

Last week we introduced you to the man providing our AFL & NRL Tips this year.

He has been the Head of Data Analytics, Price Assessment and Trading at some of the biggest and most respected bookmakers in Australia.

Due to his seniority and standing we cannot reveal his name, but rest assured it is a real coup for Winning Edge Investments to have secured him, and neither we, nor any other services, have ever had anyone of this calibre provide AFL Tips before to their clients.

After releasing the NRL Earlybird Special last week, below are details of our AFL Tips Earlybird Special. Details are below. This Earlybird Special closes COB Sunday.

Tell us a bit about yourself and your background.

Ever since my early childhood, I've loved playing and watching sport. Enter my early teens and my life was consumed by sport, playing, training or watching every day. I was a dead set sports junkie. In my later teens, I got the taste for punting and the idea of getting paid to watch sport seemed very attractive, so when the opportunity to work at a bookmaker presented, I jumped at it. That was 2 decades ago, and in that time I've held senior positions as Head of Data Analytics, Price Assessment and Trading for AFL & NRL at some of the biggest and most respected bookmakers in Australia. 

How did you get into AFL & NRL and how did you turn into a successful long-term punter?

In my early 20s I was approached by one of the senior sports traders and asked if I would be interested in learning how to price markets. I accepted his offer and so my journey of price assessor and punter began. He was a great teacher, not only of pricing but punting as well. I became obsessed with data and statistics and I quickly learned that with accurate pricing, a strong staking plan and discipline, punting can be extremely lucrative.  

How do you identify your bets? Where do you find the biggest edges? 

Each week I use key metrics to produce a set of prices and lines / margins for each game. I compare those prices to what the bookmakers offer, and identify the value to determine my bets. It's surprising how many people I know that say "That's a big price, I am going to have to halve my stake". I'm the opposite. If I see that something is a big price, I will double my bet. This aligns with the Kelly Criterion theorem of maximising your profits where you have the biggest edge.

Why do you believe you do so well on AFL & NRL?

No doubt the experience of having priced these markets for 20 years, combined with the vast connections I've accrued in the industry are my recipe for success.

What else do you look at when assessing matches and determining bets? 

Besides using my price assessment to find value in price variance, there are also several key market indicators to watch out for. I also believe the markets are at times slow to react to changed weather conditions. I have also built up a very strong network of associates, and I’m able to act quickly before the market adjusts and will be advising members in these instances so that they can secure great value ahead of the market.

How will your service work? What types of bets will you send, how many bets per week, unit bank recommended, estimate of weekly units spent? 

The majority of my bets will be H2H or the Line, but at times I will take aim at a total game points market. There will usually be a best bet for the week, but on average I would generally have between 2 and 5 bets per week and stake between 1-3 units per bet depending on our edge.

Will you send future and long term bets?

Yes. This year I'm very bullish about a couple of top 8 bets in particular.

What time will bets normally be released? 

The majority will be soon after the main bookmakers release their prices, so that everyone can get set.

What information do you provide with each bet? 

With each bet I will provide my rated price, the best & second price available (second best will be recorded for official results), market variance, confidence level and recommended unit investment. 

What are your previous results? What is a realistic Profit on Turnover percentage?  

Punting is not a get rich quick scheme but rather an investment that requires discipline and consistency. Every year for the past 5 years I have achieved a double digit profit margin on my investment; i.e. a minimum of 10% POT. 

Which bookmaker accounts are the best to use? 

Hahaha.....anywhere that lets you have a bet is a good account to use! I recommend having funded accounts at all bookmakers and shopping for the best value (as you also never know when they will cut you off).

Do I bet straight away, or wait until close to the game start? 

Bet as early as possible. You don't want to miss out on the price.  

Will I be able to get a decent bet on? 

This depends on how the bookmakers have your account flagged. Bookmakers will hold a lot on the markets we are betting into, so you should be able to get set to win a few thousand dollars at least.

EARLYBIRD OFFER (Closes COB Sunday)

Join this week, and you'll get an ENORMOUS discount.

$60 off the monthly package (Usually $147, down to $87 per month), or $200 off the annual package (Usually $587 down to $387 per month)

Just login, go to Subscriptions, and enter one of the below coupon codes. Don't forget to press Apply Coupon before subscribing!

Monthly Coupon Code: AFL1

Annual (Season) Coupon Code: AFL 2